"For women in general, and for those working in the private sector in particular, access to private pension income is likely to be limited for years to come. This means having a good state pension is especially important to women in terms of having their own independent income in retirement.
"On that basis, I think working women – and particularly working women for whom pension age is not too distant – should welcome anything which boosts the state pension."
Indeed, as Quilter's Greer comments: "Any increase in the state pension over and above the rate of inflation will make women pensioners better off in real terms.
"If the 8.8 per cent figure is used, the basic state pension will increase by £629.20 a year and the new state pension will increase by £821.60 a year. If instead the [ONS's revised] 3.5 per cent figure is used, the basic and new state pension will only increase by £249.60 and £327.60 a year respectively.
“Another key determinant is the rate of inflation. The Bank of England has suggested that it could increase to 4 per cent this year, and this will have a bearing on the real income of pensioners. Clearly, any basis point increase in the state pension above the rate of inflation will be a real terms boost for pensioners."
Not out of the woods
There are further problems facing the government, not just the complicated issue of tinkering with the earnings link to the triple lock. One of the big issues might be resistance against moving to a lower earnings figure.
Greer comments: "Moving from an 8 per cent uprating figure to a lower figure could well be met with a backlash," although he notes the strength of feeling is unlikely to be quite as strong as other more controversial areas of government pension policy.
He says most pensioners will "likely accept the tough fiscal environment that the government finds itself in – and would accept that it would be unfair to receive a record-breaking boost to their incomes while the country is still not out of the woods yet when it comes to the pandemic".
But, ultimately, it comes down to money, as Greer says: "The triple lock is in focus now as the chancellor sees it as a way to save a few billion if the uprating is reduced slightly."
And it is also important to press the importance to younger workers today the need to save more for their financial futures, not relying on the state to provide.
This is as true for women as it is for men, despite the fact that men below state pension age were more likely to have an active private pension than women (56 per cent compared with 51 per cent), and that men had higher active pension wealth than women (£25,300 v £20,000), according to the ONS Wealth and Assets survey.
