FT Wealth Management  

Anthropology and asset allocation: why demographic trends matter

  • To explain various component parts of the demographic mega trend
  • To list ways in which birthrates and longevity affect investment decisions
  • To summarise how migration and population growth influence longterm strategies
CPD
Approx.40min

It makes economic sense: more earners means more tax, more productivity and more diversity of thought, leading to innovation and growth.

For investors, this marks a turning-point as millions of educated, trained, experienced women return, or stay in, the workforce and help the economic trajectory of companies and countries.

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Yvonne Makendo is a mobile unit seller and seamstress from Bukavu, Democratic Republic of the Congo. With the support of UN Women she was able to restart her first business, launch a second one and is now working to empower other women like her. Photo: UN Women/Ryan Brown.

It also gives asset allocators and retail investors insights into which companies are thinking of the future, rather than remaining entrenched in old models, adds Peers.

However, millions of women are still in extreme poverty - particularly in those sub-Saharan countries with high birth rates.

According to UN Women: "More than 10 per cent of women globally are trapped in a cycle of extreme poverty, living on less than US$2.15 a day.

Charity Oxfam cites that 75 per cent of women in developing regions are in the informal economy - where they are less likely to have employment contracts, legal protections or fair wages. 

That's not to say the informal economy cannot be made fair. For example, UN Women helped seamstress Yvonne Makendo (pictured, above), set up her own business and become financially independent. 

This challenges investors to consider which funds are mindful of the supply chain and workers' rights, and support companies making a positive difference.

Room for optimism

According to James Beaumont, head of Natixis IM Solutions, to understand how to invest based on the demographic mega-trend involves breaking it down into its component parts.

He explains: "It is hard to build a well-diversified, risk-controlled, multi-asset portfolio based on one single mega trend."

Instead, portfolio managers often play mega trends by focusing on core investment ideas, expressed over a longer time horizon, in a way that allows them to deal with the tracking error that often comes with taking these calls.

Beaumont says Natixis might take an investment thesis, such as demographic change, pinpoint 'longevity' as an area of interest, and then delve into investible sectors related to this, such as "wellbeing or the subscription economy or, if your clients can take on greater illiquidity, via private equity that focuses on care homes". 

But it goes beyond portfolio construction.

Longevity presents a challenge to provide pension and end-of-life planning, as well as balancing clients' desires for a secure retirement with their desires to pass wealth down the generations. 

Intergenerational and women's wealth advice will necessitate careful guidance, tax planning and smart thinking from planners in how to understand the needs of Gen Z, Gen Alpha and the working woman, and how they want to be served by the advice profession.

Peers says: “The opportunities in a demographic megatrend are endless.”