Cop27, which kicks off this weekend in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, marks the 30th anniversary of the adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). It is seen by some as an 'African Cop', taking place on the continent most affected by climate change.
Low expectations
So, what progress can we hope for and what might we actually expect in Sharm El-Sheikh?
Just getting world leaders around a table will be a positive step and we can hope for positive engagement with and between China, the US and India – the world’s largest carbon emitters.
We will also look for progress on the themes summarised above, more specifically renewing commitments to meeting 2030 climate targets, and actually delivering greater financial support from rich countries to help those in the developing world, who have contributed least to global warming.
In reality, after such a difficult year, our expectations for the conference are not high. The response of many Cop participants has been weak, with resource-rich Australia being the only country to increase its climate commitments in 2022.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the international reaction to it have damaged institutions like the G20, of which Russia was formerly a member. China seems less globally co-operative than it was a year ago.
Under pressure from voters, some Western governments worry that the energy crisis has added costs to the green transition, with G7 nations accused of backsliding on climate goals over energy security fears. For example, Germany has said it will restart mothballed coal-fired power stations, in order to keep the lights on this winter.
Since Cop26 ended, Britain has held the Presidency of Cop, until this weekend, when the baton passes to Egypt. Under this presidency, it has been the UK’s responsibility to speed up action on climate and help deliver on four key goals.
Given the gravity of the climate crisis and the need to see through our Cop26 commitments, we are pleased to learn that the prime minister will in fact attend Cop27. This is significant.
For initiatives such as Cop27 to bring about meaningful change, it is essential for there to be continued political will to see through on promises made under the limelight once the bunting has come down and conference stands have been dismantled.
David Gorman is partner, investment management, at Castlefield
