Vantage Point: Finding Value  

Is the US headed for recession?

  • To be able to describe the impact of lower interest rates on an economy
  • To understand the impact of rate cuts on the inflation outlook
  • To understand the fiscal policy outlook in the US
CPD
Approx.30min

So a 50bp rate cut, at a time when the Bank of England has not cut by that much, sends the value of sterling higher relative to the dollar. 

That need not be a negative for the dollar as it makes exports cheaper, something Donald Trump, republican candidate for US president, has highlighted as an aspiration. 

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In terms of election outcomes, Miller’s view is that it matters little which candidate wins the US election, as both are committed to the current fiscal deficit.

Running such a deficit would very likely impact the strength of the dollar, as paying for it requires the printing of new dollars, increasing the supply of the currency. 

Analysts at TS Lombard also note that both candidates are, to one extent or another, committed to trade tariffs, an atypical consensus in the US.

Such tariffs may prove inflationary as they restrict the importation of cheaper goods, though theoretically they could be positive for the dollar. 

Of the investment case for the US, David Jane, who runs a range of multi-asset funds at Premier Miton, says: “[The US] is our largest regional exposure – although underweight any index.

"Personally I think it’s a bit of a two faceted issue – yes the US is winning economically versus Europe, which is good. 

"The reshoring theme is good, rate cuts may stimulate the consumer and save some overleveraged businesses particularly in real estate.

"On the other hand obviously the [big tech] and suchlike [are] hugely expensive but the liquidity injection helps. 

"We have a mix of some big-cap tech, regional banks and industrial (for reshoring theme), which has been doing well in absolute terms.

"The equal weight S&P is making new highs which is a good signal and suggests the market is looking beyond the shiny thing." 

Jane and his colleague Anthony Rayner say inflation will prove persistently higher in the US than many market participants are presently pricing in.

Dean Orrico, lead portfolio manager of Middlefield Canadian Income Trust, says: "Normalisation has been a common theme in economic data recently.

"In North America, growth expectations, inflation, and the labour market have all been easing from abnormally high levels. We expect the pace of normalisation to remain gradual and view these dynamics positively.

"We are not forecasting a recession in the U.S. or Canada over the next twelve months and believe the evolving macro landscape is conducive to continued strong performance from North American equity markets.

"The gradual normalisation has caused central banks to pivot towards more accommodative policy stances.