In Focus: Sustainable investing  

Is investing in US bonds a moral hazard?

Richard de Lisle, manager of the VT De Lisle America fund

"Could this traditionalist judge unite liberals and achieve the opposite of his life’s goal? Then see Trump himself as Gulliver, tied down by thousands of lawsuits as the Lilliputian efforts of democracy ebb his ebullience.

"For as long as we remember, the old adage has held: don’t bet against America, either financially or ethically. Don’t give up."

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Furthermore, Maria Staeheli, senior portfolio manager at Fisch Asset Management in Zurich, believes fixed income, particularly in the US, can provide a "compelling alternative to equities" in these current markets. 

She said: "With its decisive action, the Fed has achieved first successes and, for the time being, has also managed to maintain its credibility.

"While it could push the US economy into recession, any recession, however, is likely to be less severe than in Europe.

"We therefore see additional potential for equity market losses due to a possible combination of negative factors, which could act as a double whammy.

"First, earnings expectations, which are currently still quite robust, could see further downward revisions or the market could be surprised by disappointing corporate results.

"Second, given negative market sentiment and rising risk premiums, earnings-based multiples may also decrease. Conversely, for high-quality bonds, where risk premiums are less sensitive to corporate results, the worst is likely over in our view."

She said defensive investment grade corporate bonds were currently compensating for the risk far better than equities.

Staeheli added: "This becomes evident, for example, when comparing yields."

The yield on US IG corporates currently stands at 5.5 per cent, equal to the S&P 500 earnings yield, which includes dividends as well as retained earnings and puts them in relation to the share price.

She said: "This situation of these very different asset classes providing the same yields was last seen at the height of the financial crisis, when corporate earnings fell sharply on the back of the recession.

"In our view, this opens up a particularly attractive opportunity as investors can choose a more defensive investment without sacrificing much yield.

"IG credit also looks favourable relative to high yield as heavy new issuance has caused IG spreads to widen significantly more than the typical relationship to high yield would imply.

"Fundamentals of US IG corporates are very solid, and they appear well equipped to deal with the expected macroeconomic headwinds."

simoney.kyriakou@ft.com