But Bitel is not so sure this will be the case. She feels the decade after 2010 was an outlier, and not the start of a new normal.
She says it was the policy of “austerity” pursued by many governments around the world at that time which led to those economic conditions. She feels the political mood has changed and governments will now prioritise economic growth, and that will mean slightly higher inflation in future years.
Bitel says Eurozone governments have committed to increased spending in the years to come, though Ben Lord, bond fund manager at M&G, notes the UK government’s present economic policy focus is on reining in public spending.
Dall’Angelo says that in the US, despite there being no event such as Brexit, labour shortages are also very evident in a way that was not the case pre-pandemic, and this could lead to inflation becoming more ingrained, leading to higher rates in future than was the case in the years immediately pre-pandemic.
David Thorpe is special projects editor at FTAdviser