Talking Point  

Interest rates: where are they going?

  • Explain what might be the best course of action for central banks at the moment
  • Identify how supply and demand curves move in a perfectly functioning economy
  • Describe the output gap
CPD
Approx.30min
Interest rates: Where are they going?
The Bank of England kept interest rates at an all-time low when the MPC met in November. But change is in the air.
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The uncertainty around interest rates and inflation is the subject of much debate. 

Some fund managers believe that higher interest rates could be a bombshell for households, potentially slamming them with higher energy costs and taxes at the same time.  

Looking at the impact on investors, some express the view that a small rise would not present much concern, given that it is a question of the pace at which interest rates rise, rather than the size of the increase. 

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So, where are the opportunities at the moment, in an environment where expectations around global growth are being revised downwards and those about inflation are being revised upwards?  

Fund-manager opinions are mixed, with a range of views, including that equities are the “only game in town”, although some point to emerging-market bonds and others have a preference for government bonds - particularly the US version. 

This report will look at some of these issues and is worth an indicative 30 minutes' CPD.

 

CPD
Approx.30min

Please answer the six multiple choice questions below in order to bank your CPD. Multiple attempts are available until all questions are correctly answered.

  1. In a perfectly functioning economy, how are the supply and demand curves moving?

  2. What is the output gap?

  3. What does George Lagarais believe might be the best course of action for central banks right now?

  4. Which asset class does Rupert Thompson believe is the “only game in town” right now”

  5. Which equities does Thompson believe will outperform against the US during a period of higher rates?

  6. In what circumstances does Peter Fitzgerald believe all asset classes except equities will do well?

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You have successfully answered all the questions correctly, well done!

You should now know…

  • Explain what might be the best course of action for central banks at the moment
  • Identify how supply and demand curves move in a perfectly functioning economy
  • Describe the output gap

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