Investing in the Trump Era: How Economic Policies Impact Financial Markets by Nicholas P Sargen. Published by Palgrave Macmillan.
A slim volume packed with masses of valuable business insight and data: how economic policies impact financial markets is at the core of the book with the focus on US President Donald Trump and his administration.
The book is structured very helpfully into four clear sections:
- Financial markets and long-term growth
- Fiscal and regulatory policies to promote growth
- Monetary exchange rates and trade policies
- Globalisation and financial markets.
Mr Sargen explores each section in great detail, in a very readable style supported by plenty of economic data to add detail and insight.
After the 2016 election and surprise victory for President Trump, nobody could with any confidence predict what the fall-out might be.
The key takeaway messages from the book relate to three mega-trends of prime importance:
- Will inflation remain benign throughout the next decade?
- What will be the impact on interest and savings rates and government budgets from US and global demographic shifts?
- Will globalisation continue its dominance and what will be the knock-on affect on the disparity of income levels for people across the world?
Mr Sargen does offer some guidance and pointers, namely:
- Cyclical developments will have short-term positive impact on the US financial markets and economy in general.
- It is highly unlikely that the US economy can return to its former trend of 3 per cent growth a year.
- US budget decisions have always been important, but the US demographics and ageing population will add increasing pressure.
- US small businesses should be set for an economic boost if President Trump does indeed lessen the regulatory burden.
- Any attempt to move towards protectionism by the US will have a negative impact on financial markets due to the inextricable links between the US and other global economies and markets.
- Investors must take a longer-term view on the assets within their portfolios and also be prepared for market volatility to increase significantly.
You have been warned.
Nick McBreen is a financial adviser at Worldwide Financial Planning
