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US winners and losers under Trump

This article is part of
Guide to President Trump's impact on investments

For Close Brothers Asset Management, defence and technology exposures will also benefit from any spending in these areas.

Despite the relative health of the US stock market at the moment, consensus opinion anticipates volatility over the next few months. While traditionally this has been used by investors to 'buy on the dips', any short-term volatility in US equity markets should be viewed with some caution, says Dan Kemp, chief investment officer for Morningstar Investment Management (Europe).

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He explains while it can be a "profitable exercise" to buy on the dips whenever there is volatility, there is no discernible "dip" deep enough to create real bargains in the US.

Mr Kemp comments: "We continue to believe US equities are expensive relative to fair value and are therefore unlikely to advocate buying into any initial weakness in this market."

Battle for bonds

Where Mr Trump's policies have failed to calm investors' nerves, however, is in the US sovereign and corporate bond markets. 

Close Brothers Asset Management's Ms Curtin comments: "Mr Trump's policies, at least in the short-term, are likely to be viewed as bond negative. 

"Yields might move higher on increased fiscal deficit spending, and fears that this, as well as lower immigration, might spark inflation."

However, she comments that a steeper yield curve might be positive for bank shares. Bond vigilante Jim Leaviss, head of retail fixed interest at M&G Investments, agrees a yield curve steepening is likely.

He explains: "Longer-dated US Treasuries have sold off, with the 30-year yield 5 basis points higher [than before the election result]."

Mr Leaviss says any fiscal stimulus through rate cuts and infrastructure spend, and government borrowing rising in the medium-term, could result in yield curve steepening.

Investors also expect higher rate rises from the Federal Reserve. Mr Leaviss says: "The Fed was seen as nailed on for a 25 basis point rise in December, but the uncertainty impact of Mr Trump's win makes this much less likely."

According to Mr Leaviss, the implied probability of a rate increase has fallen from more than 80 per cent to just 50 per cent, with rate expectations falling for 2017 as well.

Currently, US Treasury yields on 10-year paper are at 1.81 per cent.

David Roberts, head of fixed income at Kames Capital, says rates could indeed increase by 1 per cent over the next 18 months if Mr Trump pushes through his mooted $5trn fiscal stimulus package.

Mr Roberts comments: "With full employment and some inflation pressure we think there could be another 1 per cent on US interest rates over the next 18 months. If [Janet Yellen, chairman of the board of governors of the Fed] believes Mr Trump will spend $5trn on policies that make a difference, then bonds have further to sell off.”