Geography  

Assessing Trump's effect on global markets

This article is part of
Guide to President Trump's impact on investments

However, Ms Calich says with volatility comes opportunities, and some countries, such as India and Brazil, have low trade or immigration ties with the US.

Ms Calich adds: "We will look to selectively increase exposure to countries with relatively looser ties with the US, and whose asset prices have been unduly punished, or for assets that have severely underperformed, such as the Mexican peso, which is finally pricing in a lot of negative news after a 50 per cent depreciation in the past two years."

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Europe (excluding UK)

EPFR Group data showed that on 9 November, European equity funds continued to post outflows, although within Europe, some countries appear more attractive to investors than others. 

According to the data, funds with regional mandates within Europe accounted for the bulk of redemptions.

According to analysis from EPFR Group: "Some investors are looking ahead to Italy's constitutional referendum in December and reassessing individual markets in light of recent macro-economic data and corporate earnings reports."

While Italy looks less impressive, EPFR Global data showed German equity funds received their biggest inflows since June (the time of the UK referendum to leave Europe).

Asia excluding Japan

Aidan Yao, senior economist at Axa Investment Managers, says initial rebounds in Asian stock markets after a knee-jerk sell off should not be seen as reason for complacency.

He believes from a macro standpoint, Asia is not going to be immune to protectionism from America.

For both good and ill, investors in Asian securities could see the "Trumponomics effect" in four key areas, according to Mr Yao:

  • Trade and Forex policies. Asia is the most exposed region to the US in terms of trade, investment and remittance (see Figure 2). If trade tariffs against China are put into effect, this could lead to a trade war with China and would affect Asia through the trade-supply chain.
  • Fiscal stimulus. If passing fiscal stimulus packages becomes easier for Mr Trump than for President Barack Obama, then such policies could revive US growth, which would bode well for Asia and the rest of the world.
  • The US dollar. The outlook for the Federal Reserve policy and US dollar is "clouded", which creates uncertainty for capital flows and monetary conditions in Asia.
  • Market sentiment. Mr Yao says: "We expect financial markets to remain sensitive to US politics and Asian markets will continue to take their cues from the US and follow their market swings closely."

Standardised score ranking of emerging market countries' exposure to US

China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand are all heavily exposed to the US. The only country, according to the chart, which is more exposed is Mexico.

By contrast, Chile, Turkey and Brazil have low exposures to the US in terms of trade, investment and remittance.

Yet Asian high yield will continue to be attractive, regardless of what variance the equity market might show, according to Teresa Kong, portfolio manager of Matthews Asia.

She explains: "While there has been some discussion around fiscal spending and infrastructure by a Trump administration, the potential effect on Asia is likely to be minimal. The outlook for monetary policy in Asia remains the same. 

"It is unlikely to see rising rates - in fact, in most Asian countries, they are seeing interest rates fall because of structural falls in inflation.

"We believe the easing bias of central banks will help mitigate the risk of rising defaults and prudent carry strategies, such as Asia high yield, will continue to be attractive."

Japan

Perversely, Mr Trump's protectionist stance seems to have bolstered Japan's prospects, according to inflows into Japanese exchange-traded funds (ETFs).